This project finds the best mathematical model to forecast the future losses for each state from a given series of historical data by Hanover Insurance Group. There are nine models chosen after analyzing all the states' data. The score method is applied to seek out the accurate models among the nine models. Comprehensive analysis also shows that some external experience needs to be used in order to make the prediction more precise.

• This report represents the work of one or more WPI undergraduate students submitted to the faculty as evidence of completion of a degree requirement. WPI routinely publishes these reports on its website without editorial or peer review.

Creator

• Zheng, Mingzhu
• Liu, Haiying
• Shatz, Aryeh L

Publisher

• Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Identifier

• E-project-043009-161344

Advisor

• Abraham, Jon P.

Year

• 2009

Sponsor

• Hanover Insurance Group

Date created

• 2009-04-30

Resource type

• Major Qualifying Project

Major

• Actuarial Mathematics

Rights statement

• In Copyright

Last modified

• 2021-01-27