Faculty Advisor

Abraham, Jon P

Abstract

This project finds the best mathematical model to forecast the future losses for each state from a given series of historical data by Hanover Insurance Group. There are nine models chosen after analyzing all the states' data. The score method is applied to seek out the accurate models among the nine models. Comprehensive analysis also shows that some external experience needs to be used in order to make the prediction more precise.

Publisher

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Date Accepted

April 2009

Major

Actuarial Mathematics

Project Type

Major Qualifying Project

Accessibility

Unrestricted

Advisor Department

Mathematical Sciences

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