Faculty Advisor

Posterro, Barry John

Faculty Advisor

Abraham, Jon P.

Abstract

We developed an expansive database collected from multiple sources that contains the outcome of each at bat in every baseball game since 1921, and the Las Vegas betting odds on every game since 2006. With 13 million records, we created new statistics and develop enhanced prediction models. Our thinking has always been centered around probabilities and sustainable production on the baseball field. This sustainable production is what will lead to player’s and team’s future successes. As a result, we have tried to quantify that success and implemented it into our models. We have created different models, and have had varying success with predicting the outcomes of baseball games. Lastly, we compared our models to Las Vegas book odds to see if any teams represented an arbitrage opportunity.

Publisher

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Date Accepted

2019-12-13

Major

Actuarial Mathematics

Project Type

Major Qualifying Project

Accessibility

Unrestricted

Advisor Department

Mathematical Sciences

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